Correct Score Calculator
Enter the goals you expect from each team to get the probability of every score from 0-0 to 5-5, the fair price of each one with no bookmaker margin, the chance of “any other score” and the home, draw and away probabilities the grid implies. Pick a score and the price you have been offered to see its expected value.
In one line: P(i-j) = P(home scores exactly i) × P(away scores exactly j), each from a Poisson distribution. With 1.6 and 1.1 expected goals, 2-1 is 25.84% × 36.62% = 9.46%, a fair price of 10.57; the most likely score is 1-1 at 11.83%.
Expected goals for one match are an estimate: from a model, from recent xG averages or from prices. Decimal odds; convert fractional or American prices with the odds converter. Correct score is settled on 90 minutes plus stoppage time unless the market says otherwise.
Score grid at 1.60 v 1.10
Rows: home goals. Columns: away goals. Probability of each exact score.
| Home \ Away | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7% | 7.4% | 4.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 10.8% | 11.8% | 6.5% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 8.6% | 9.5% | 5.2% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 4.6% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
The eight most likely scores
| Score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.83% | 8.45 |
| 1-0 | 10.75% | 9.30 |
| 2-1 | 9.46% | 10.57 |
| 2-0 | 8.60% | 11.62 |
| 0-1 | 7.39% | 13.53 |
| 0-0 | 6.72% | 14.88 |
| 1-2 | 6.51% | 15.37 |
| 2-2 | 5.20% | 19.21 |
Result
How the Calculator Prices a Correct Score
Each team gets its own Poisson distribution, with its expected goals as the average: P(k goals) = e−λ λk / k!. Treating the two teams as independent, the chance of an exact score is the product of the two individual chances. Doing this for every pair of goal counts builds the full score grid; adding up the right cells then gives every other football market, from the match result to both teams to score and total goals.
Worked example: 2-1 at 1.6 against 1.1
Home scores exactly two: e−1.6 × 1.6² / 2 = 25.84%. Away scores exactly one: e−1.1 × 1.1 = 36.62%. The score 2-1 is 25.84% × 36.62% = 9.46%, a fair price of 10.57. Offered at 9.00, the bet has an expected value of 9.46% × 9.00 − 1 = −14.8% per stake; at 11.00 it would be +4.1%. The gap between those two prices is small compared with how much a tenth of a goal in either input moves the answer, so treat any edge on a single score with care.
Why 1-1 is so often the most likely score
A home win at 1.6 v 1.1 is 48.96% likely, but it is spread over 1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 3-1 and dozens of other scores. The draw, at 24.89%, sits almost entirely on 0-0, 1-1 and 2-2. That concentration is why the single most likely score is frequently a draw even when the home side is the clear favourite. The table shows where the top score changes as the match becomes more one-sided, and how quickly “any other score” grows when a list stops at 3-3.
| Home xG | Away xG | Top score | Its chance | Second | 0-0 | Outside 0-3 grid |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.2 | 1.1 | 1-1 | 13.2% | 1-0 | 10.0% | 5.9% |
| 1.6 | 1.1 | 1-1 | 11.8% | 1-0 | 6.7% | 10.3% |
| 1.8 | 0.9 | 1-0 | 12.1% | 1-1 | 6.7% | 12.1% |
| 2.1 | 0.8 | 2-0 | 12.1% | 1-0 | 5.5% | 16.9% |
| 2.5 | 0.7 | 2-0 | 12.7% | 3-0 | 4.1% | 24.7% |
| 3.1 | 0.7 | 3-0 | 11.1% | 2-0 | 2.2% | 37.9% |
| 1.1 | 1.6 | 1-1 | 11.8% | 0-1 | 6.7% | 10.3% |
Where the model is weak
Independent Poisson goals are a first estimate. Research on league data since Dixon and Coles (1997) finds that the plain model slightly underestimates 0-0 and 1-1 and overestimates 1-0 and 0-1, because game state changes how teams play. On a single score this matters more than on a total or on BTTS, since the error is not spread over other outcomes. Correct score books also carry a much larger margin than the match result, because it is spread across many selections: add the implied probabilities of every price with the margin calculator before treating a price as value.
Settlement rules that change the answer
Correct score is settled on the score at the end of normal time, including stoppage time: extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded unless the market says otherwise. If a match is abandoned, correct score bets are usually void because the final score was never reached. How the market is laid out, including the 17-way format and “any other score”, is covered in our correct score betting guide; the full rules are in our extra time and penalties rules and abandoned match rules.
Frequently Asked Questions
How do you calculate the probability of a correct score?
Give each team its own Poisson distribution from its expected goals, take the chance of the home team scoring exactly i and the away team exactly j, and multiply them. For 2-1 with 1.6 and 1.1 expected goals: P(home 2) = 25.84%, P(away 1) = 36.62%, so 2-1 is 9.46% and the fair price is 10.57.
What is the most likely correct score in a football match?
In most league matches it is 1-1 or 1-0. At 1.6 v 1.1 expected goals, 1-1 is the single most likely score at 11.83%, ahead of 1-0 at 10.75%, even though the home side is the favourite to win. A favourite's win is spread across many scores, while the draw is concentrated in a few. When one side is expected to score about twice as many, 1-0 moves to the top (1.8 v 0.9), and 2-0 takes over around 2.1 v 0.8.
What does "any other score" mean in correct score betting?
It is the selection that wins when the final score is not one of those listed by the operator. Its probability depends on how wide the list is: if scores up to 3-3 are listed, any other score is 10.3% at 1.6 v 1.1 expected goals, but 37.9% in a one-sided 3.1 v 0.7 match. Some operators split it into any other home win, draw and away win.
Do correct score bets include extra time?
Normally not. Correct score markets are settled on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty shoot-outs do not count unless the market is labelled as including extra time or as the final result. Check the market name before you bet on a cup tie.
How do correct score probabilities relate to the match odds?
Adding up every home-win score gives the home win probability, every draw gives the draw and the rest gives the away win. At 1.6 v 1.1 that is 48.96%, 24.89% and 26.15%, fair prices of 2.04, 4.02 and 3.82. If the match odds you see imply a very different split, the expected-goals inputs are probably off, not the market.
Even the most likely score happens in roughly one match in eight. A correct score bet loses far more often than it wins, and long losing runs are normal. 18+. If gambling stops being fun, see our responsible gambling resources.