BTTS Calculator: Both Teams to Score
Enter the goals you expect from each team to get the probability that both score, the fair price of BTTS Yes and No with no bookmaker margin, and the combined markets: BTTS and over 2.5, BTTS and the match result. Add the prices you have been offered to see the margin and the expected value.
In one line: BTTS Yes = (1 − e−home xG) × (1 − e−away xG). With 1.6 and 1.1 expected goals that is 79.81% × 66.71% = 53.24%, a fair Yes price of 1.88 and a fair No price of 2.14.
Expected goals for one match are an estimate: from a model, from recent xG averages or from prices. Decimal odds; convert fractional or American prices with the odds converter. Settlement is on 90 minutes plus stoppage time unless the market says otherwise.
Every way the BTTS bet can land at 1.60 v 1.10
| Outcome | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS and over 2.5 goals | 41.42% | 2.41 |
| BTTS and home win | 22.39% | 4.47 |
| BTTS and draw | 18.17% | 5.50 |
| BTTS and away win | 12.68% | 7.88 |
| BTTS but exactly 1-1 | 11.83% | 8.45 |
| No: 0-0 | 6.72% | 14.88 |
| No: only the home team scores | 26.57% | 3.76 |
| No: only the away team scores | 13.47% | 7.42 |
The three “BTTS and result” rows add up to BTTS Yes; the three “No” rows add up to BTTS No. A combined bet priced by a bookmaker as a single market may not equal the product of the two separate prices, because the two halves are linked.
Result
How the Calculator Prices Both Teams to Score
BTTS Yes needs two separate things to happen: the home team scores at least once and the away team scores at least once. If each team's goals follow a Poisson distribution with its own average, the chance a team with λ expected goals is held scoreless is e−λ, so the chance it scores is 1 − e−λ. Treating the two teams as independent, BTTS Yes is the product of the two; BTTS No is everything else: 0-0, or only one side scoring.
Worked example: 1.6 against 1.1
Home scores: 1 − e−1.6 = 79.81%. Away scores: 1 − e−1.1 = 66.71%. BTTS Yes = 79.81% × 66.71% = 53.24%, fair price 1.88; BTTS No = 46.76%, fair price 2.14. If you are offered 1.80 Yes and 1.95 No, the book adds up to 106.84% (a 6.84% margin) and Yes at 1.80 has an expected value of 53.24% × 1.80 − 1 = −4.2% per stake. Only above 1.88 does the Yes price beat this estimate. BTTS and over 2.5 removes the 1-1 (11.83%) from BTTS Yes: 41.42%, fair price 2.41.
Same total, different answer
This is where BTTS differs from a total goals line. Over/under depends only on the sum of the two expected-goals figures; BTTS depends on the weaker side. All four matches below expect 2.6 goals, so they share the same over 2.5 probability, yet BTTS Yes ranges from 52.9% to 29.3%.
| Home xG | Away xG | BTTS Yes |
|---|---|---|
| 1.3 | 1.3 | 52.9% |
| 1.6 | 1.0 | 50.4% |
| 1.9 | 0.7 | 42.8% |
| 2.2 | 0.4 | 29.3% |
BTTS by expected goals
The same formula for common match profiles. A balanced fixture with goals at both ends is the classic BTTS Yes match; a strong favourite against a side that rarely scores is the classic No, even when plenty of goals are expected overall.
| Home xG | Away xG | BTTS Yes | Fair Yes | Fair No |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | 1.0 | 40.0% | 2.50 | 1.67 |
| 1.2 | 1.0 | 44.2% | 2.26 | 1.79 |
| 1.4 | 1.1 | 50.3% | 1.99 | 2.01 |
| 1.6 | 1.1 | 53.2% | 1.88 | 2.14 |
| 1.8 | 1.0 | 52.8% | 1.90 | 2.12 |
| 2.0 | 0.8 | 47.6% | 2.10 | 1.91 |
| 1.5 | 1.2 | 54.3% | 1.84 | 2.19 |
| 1.4 | 1.4 | 56.8% | 1.76 | 2.31 |
| 2.2 | 1.3 | 64.7% | 1.55 | 2.83 |
Where the model is weak
Goals by the two teams are not fully independent: a side that falls behind attacks more, and a side that leads may sit deep. Research on league data since Dixon and Coles (1997) finds that a plain Poisson model slightly underestimates low-scoring draws. More 0-0s lower BTTS Yes and more 1-1s raise it, so the correction is smaller for BTTS than for a single score. The bigger uncertainty is the input itself: a few tenths of a goal on the weaker team move the answer by several points. Compare any edge with the bookmaker margin before reading anything into it, and use the correct score calculator to see the full score grid behind these numbers.
Settlement rules that change the answer
BTTS is normally settled on 90 minutes plus stoppage time: extra time and shoot-outs do not count unless the market says so. An own goal counts for the team it is credited to; a goal ruled out by VAR does not count. If a match is abandoned after both teams have scored, a BTTS Yes bet is usually already decided and stands, while an undecided bet is usually void. See our extra time and penalties rules and abandoned match rules. BTTS often appears as a leg in a bet builder, where the operator prices the legs together: our guide to bet builder correlation explains why.
Frequently Asked Questions
How do you calculate the probability of both teams to score?
Work out the chance that each team scores at least once and multiply the two. With a Poisson model a team expected to score λ goals fails to score with probability e^−λ, so it scores with 1 − e^−λ. At 1.6 and 1.1 expected goals that is 79.81% × 66.71% = 53.24%, a fair BTTS Yes price of 1.88 and a fair No price of 2.14.
Why can two matches with the same expected goals have different BTTS odds?
Because BTTS depends on how the goals are split, not only on the total. With 2.6 goals expected, a balanced 1.3 v 1.3 match gives BTTS Yes 52.9%, while a lopsided 2.2 v 0.4 match gives only 29.3%: the weaker side often fails to score. An over/under price tells you the total; BTTS needs the estimate for each team.
What is BTTS and over 2.5 goals?
A combined bet that wins only if both teams score and there are at least three goals. The only score where both teams score but the total stays under 2.5 is 1-1, so the probability is BTTS Yes minus the chance of 1-1. At 1.6 v 1.1 that is 53.24% − 11.83% = 41.42%, a fair price of 2.41.
Do own goals and extra time count for both teams to score?
An own goal counts for the team it is credited to, so it can complete a BTTS bet. Markets are normally settled on 90 minutes plus stoppage time: goals in extra time do not count and a penalty shoot-out never does, unless the market name says it includes extra time.
How reliable is a Poisson model for BTTS?
It is a reasonable first estimate. It treats the two teams' goals as independent, while real matches show some dependence: plain Poisson tends to underestimate 0-0 and 1-1, which push BTTS in opposite directions, so the errors partly offset. The larger error is usually the expected-goals input for one match, so read the fair price as a range.
A probability model describes uncertainty; it does not remove it. A 53% bet loses almost half the time, sometimes several times in a row. 18+. If gambling stops being fun, see our responsible gambling resources.