Nations League 2026/27 Promotion and Relegation: Who Can Still Go Up or Down, Group by Group
The last two league-phase matchdays are played from 12 to 17 November 2026. They decide who is promoted, who is relegated and who goes into the play-offs in March 2027, under rules that changed for this edition: the next Nations League has three leagues instead of four, so League D disappears and nobody drops out of League C.
For each of the fourteen groups, this page shows where every team can still finish. We took UEFA’s results after matchday 4, ran every combination of scores up to 4-4 in the remaining games through the tiebreak order of Article 15, and checked the ranking code against UEFA’s published order for all fourteen groups first: it matched every one. Where only a freak scoreline outside that range could change a result, the page says so. Kick-off times are UK time (GMT). No tips, no odds, no predicted line-ups.
What each finishing place is worth in 2026/27
Article 16 of the regulations sets out who plays in the play-offs and Article 19 who is promoted and relegated. Both were adopted in their current form on 15 September 2026. For 2028/29, the teams ranked 1st to 18th overall enter League A, 19th to 36th League B, and everyone else League C.
| 1st and 2nd | Quarter-finals, 25–30 March 2027. Stay in League A. |
| 3rd, best two of four | Stay in League A. |
| 3rd, lowest two of four | League A/B play-offs against League B runners-up. |
| 4th, best two of four | League A/B play-offs against League B runners-up. |
| 4th, lowest two of four | Relegated to League B. |
| 1st | Promoted to League A. |
| 2nd | League A/B play-offs against League A teams. |
| 3rd | Stay in League B. |
| 4th | League B/C play-offs against League C runners-up. |
| 1st | Promoted to League B. |
| 2nd | League B/C play-offs against League B fourth-placed teams. |
| 3rd and 4th | Stay in League C. There is no relegation from League C. |
| All six teams | Move up to League C, which absorbs League D in 2028/29. |
Play-off ties are two legs, drawn with the team from the higher league seeded, and the team from the lower league plays the first leg at home. Winners of the League A/B ties play in League A in 2028/29, losers in League B; the League B/C ties work the same way one level down. All of them, and the League A quarter-finals, are played from 25 to 30 March 2027.
What is already settled
- Spain and Portugal will finish in the top two of their League A groups and reach the quarter-finals. England are top two in every case except an extreme one: a Croatia win at Wembley by seven goals or more, with other results also going against England.
- Switzerland (B1), Montenegro (C2) and Slovakia (C3) cannot finish lower than second, so the worst case for each of them is a play-off for promotion in March.
- Türkiye, Serbia and Czechia are certain to finish third or fourth in League A, and Croatia are in the same position barring that Wembley scoreline. All four are therefore inside the cross-group comparison described below.
- San Marino will finish fourth in Group C1 and stay in League C. All six League D teams, including Malta, move up to League C.
League A
No promotion here. The top two in each group reach the quarter-finals; third and fourth places lead into a comparison across all four groups that decides who stays up, who plays off and who goes down.
| Team | P | GD | Pts | Can still finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| France | 4 | +5 | 10 | 1st to 3rd |
| Italy | 4 | +3 | 7 | 1st to 3rd |
| Belgium | 4 | +1 | 6 | 1st to 4th |
| Türkiye | 4 | −9 | 0 | 3rd or 4th |
- Thu 12 Nov, 17:00 GMT: Türkiye v Belgium (Izmir)
- Thu 12 Nov, 19:45 GMT: Italy v France (Milan)
- Sun 15 Nov, 19:45 GMT: France v Türkiye (Bordeaux)
- Sun 15 Nov, 19:45 GMT: Belgium v Italy (Brussels)
France are certain to finish first if they win in Milan on 12 November, or draw there and avoid defeat at home to Türkiye. A defeat in Milan brings second place into play, and third as well if they also lose to Türkiye.
Belgium can still finish anywhere. Fourth needs two defeats, in Izmir and at home to Italy. Türkiye can only move off fourth by beating both Belgium and France, and even then they can finish no higher than third.
| Team | P | GD | Pts | Can still finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | 4 | +2 | 8 | 1st to 3rd |
| Greece | 4 | +2 | 8 | 1st to 3rd |
| Germany | 4 | +1 | 5 | 1st to 4th |
| Serbia | 4 | −5 | 0 | 3rd or 4th |
- Fri 13 Nov, 19:45 GMT: Netherlands v Greece (Amsterdam)
- Fri 13 Nov, 19:45 GMT: Serbia v Germany (Belgrade)
- Mon 16 Nov, 19:45 GMT: Germany v Netherlands (Berlin)
- Mon 16 Nov, 19:45 GMT: Greece v Serbia (Volos)
Netherlands and Greece meet in Amsterdam on 13 November after a 2-2 draw in Greece, so the winner also takes the head-to-head. Neither can finish fourth.
Germany drop to fourth only if they lose in Belgrade and then fail to beat Netherlands in Berlin. Serbia, without a point, escape fourth only by winning both games.
| Team | P | GD | Pts | Can still finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 4 | +7 | 12 | 1st or 2nd |
| England | 4 | +11 | 9 | 1st or 2nd |
| Croatia | 4 | −10 | 3 | 3rd or 4th |
| Czechia | 4 | −8 | 0 | 3rd or 4th |
- Thu 12 Nov, 19:45 GMT: Czechia v Spain (Prague)
- Thu 12 Nov, 19:45 GMT: England v Croatia (London)
- Sun 15 Nov, 19:45 GMT: Croatia v Czechia (Osijek)
- Sun 15 Nov, 19:45 GMT: Spain v England (Madrid)
Spain and England fill the top two. Croatia, who lost 7-0 at home to England, could only overtake England with a win at Wembley by about the same margin; our November scenarios page works through that case. England finish first only by winning in Madrid.
Third against fourth is a straight fight between Croatia and Czechia, decided in Osijek on 15 November. Croatia won the first meeting 2-1 in Prague, so a one-goal Czech win cancels it out and the whole-group figures decide. A Czech win by two goals or more gives Czechia the head-to-head.
| Team | P | GD | Pts | Can still finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portugal | 4 | +5 | 12 | 1st or 2nd |
| Denmark | 4 | 0 | 6 | 1st to 4th |
| Wales | 4 | −3 | 3 | 2nd to 4th |
| Norway | 4 | −2 | 3 | 2nd to 4th |
- Sat 14 Nov, 17:00 GMT: Norway v Wales (Oslo)
- Sat 14 Nov, 19:45 GMT: Portugal v Denmark (Braga)
- Tue 17 Nov, 19:45 GMT: Denmark v Norway (Copenhagen)
- Tue 17 Nov, 19:45 GMT: Wales v Portugal (Cardiff)
Portugal are in the top two whatever happens, and first unless they lose to both Denmark and Wales. Denmark fall to fourth only if they lose both of their games.
Wales and Norway can each finish anywhere from second to fourth. Wales won the only meeting 2-1, which is why they are above Norway with the worse goal difference. That meeting is reversed by a Norway win in Oslo by two goals or more.
League A’s second table: third and fourth places compared
Article 19.01 ranks the four third-placed teams against each other with their results against the fourth-placed team in their group left out, then ranks the four fourth-placed teams on all their results. Points come first, then goal difference, then goals scored. The tables below show that comparison as it would stand if the league phase had ended after matchday 4. It did not, and which team ends third or fourth in each group can still change, so read them as a demonstration of the method, not a forecast.
| 1. Belgium (A1) | 3 pts, GD −2 | 3-0 win over Türkiye removed |
| 2. Germany (A2) | 2 pts, GD −1 | 2-0 win over Serbia removed |
| 3. Wales (A4) | 0 pts, GD −4 | 2-1 win over Norway removed |
| 4. Croatia (A3) | 0 pts, GD −11 | 2-1 win over Czechia removed |
Top two stay in League A. Bottom two go into the League A/B play-offs.
| 1. Norway (A4) | 3 pts, GD −2 |
| 2. Serbia (A2) | 0 pts, GD −5 |
| 3. Czechia (A3) | 0 pts, GD −8 |
| 4. Türkiye (A1) | 0 pts, GD −9 |
Top two go into the League A/B play-offs. Bottom two are relegated to League B.
Two consequences are worth holding on to. A win over the team that finishes fourth is worth nothing in the third-place comparison, which is why Wales and Croatia would have no points in it today. And because the fourth-placed teams are compared on everything, the margin of a defeat matters: a fourth-placed side that loses 1-0 rather than 4-0 can be the difference between a play-off and relegation. The full order of criteria is on our Nations League tiebreakers guide.
League B
Four promotion places, one per group winner. Second place leads to the League A/B play-offs, third is safe, and fourth leads to the League B/C play-offs.
| Team | P | GD | Pts | Can still finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Switzerland | 4 | +10 | 12 | 1st or 2nd |
| Slovenia | 4 | +2 | 7 | 1st to 3rd |
| Scotland | 4 | −2 | 4 | 2nd to 4th |
| North Macedonia | 4 | −10 | 0 | 3rd or 4th |
- Fri 13 Nov, 19:45 GMT: Scotland v North Macedonia (Glasgow)
- Fri 13 Nov, 19:45 GMT: Slovenia v Switzerland (Ljubljana)
- Mon 16 Nov, 19:45 GMT: Switzerland v Scotland (St Gallen)
- Mon 16 Nov, 19:45 GMT: North Macedonia v Slovenia (Skopje)
Switzerland are certain to finish in the top two. They are promoted unless they lose in Ljubljana on 13 November, and Slovenia can win the group only by winning both of their games.
Scotland cannot win the group. North Macedonia can only move off fourth, and out of the League B/C play-offs, by winning at Hampden Park on 13 November.
| Team | P | GD | Pts | Can still finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Ireland | 4 | +4 | 8 | 1st to 3rd |
| Hungary | 4 | +1 | 7 | 1st to 4th |
| Ukraine | 4 | −3 | 4 | 1st to 4th |
| Georgia | 4 | −2 | 2 | 2nd to 4th |
- Sat 14 Nov, 17:00 GMT: Georgia v Hungary (Tbilisi)
- Sat 14 Nov, 19:45 GMT: Northern Ireland v Ukraine (Belfast)
- Tue 17 Nov, 19:45 GMT: Ukraine v Georgia (Košice)
- Tue 17 Nov, 19:45 GMT: Hungary v Northern Ireland (Budapest)
Northern Ireland cannot finish fourth. Their game in Budapest on 17 November decides most of the group, because the first meeting with Hungary ended 0-0 and the winner takes the head-to-head.
Georgia cannot win the group. Hungary and Ukraine can each still finish anywhere from first to fourth.
| Team | P | GD | Pts | Can still finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austria | 4 | +4 | 8 | 1st to 4th |
| Kosovo | 4 | −1 | 5 | 1st to 4th |
| Republic of Ireland | 4 | +2 | 5 | 1st to 4th |
| Israel | 4 | −5 | 2 | 1st to 4th |
- Sat 14 Nov, 14:00 GMT: Kosovo v Israel (Pristina)
- Sat 14 Nov, 19:45 GMT: Austria v Republic of Ireland (Linz)
- Tue 17 Nov, 19:45 GMT: Israel v Austria (Debrecen)
- Tue 17 Nov, 19:45 GMT: Republic of Ireland v Kosovo (Dublin)
The most open group in the competition: every one of the four teams can still finish anywhere from first to fourth, Israel included, although Israel top the group only by winning in Pristina and against Austria.
Austria are promoted with a win against the Republic of Ireland in Linz on 14 November. Austria can only fall to fourth by losing both games.
| Team | P | GD | Pts | Can still finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sweden | 4 | +4 | 10 | 1st to 3rd |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 4 | +3 | 8 | 1st to 3rd |
| Poland | 4 | +3 | 4 | 2nd to 4th |
| Romania | 4 | −10 | 0 | 3rd or 4th |
- Sat 14 Nov, 19:45 GMT: Sweden v Bosnia and Herzegovina (Solna)
- Sat 14 Nov, 19:45 GMT: Romania v Poland (Bucharest)
- Tue 17 Nov, 19:45 GMT: Bosnia and Herzegovina v Romania (Zenica)
- Tue 17 Nov, 19:45 GMT: Poland v Sweden (Wroclaw)
Promotion lies between Sweden and Bosnia and Herzegovina, who meet in Solna on 14 November after a 1-1 draw in Zenica. A Sweden win there puts them top in every case.
Poland cannot win the group. Romania can only move off fourth, and out of the League B/C play-offs, by beating both Poland and Bosnia and Herzegovina.
League C
Four promotion places for the group winners and four play-off places for the runners-up. Third and fourth places are safe, because League C is the bottom league in 2028/29.
| Team | P | GD | Pts | Can still finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albania | 4 | +5 | 9 | 1st to 3rd |
| Belarus | 4 | +3 | 7 | 1st to 3rd |
| Finland | 4 | +7 | 7 | 1st to 3rd |
| San Marino | 4 | −15 | 0 | 4th (settled) |
- Thu 12 Nov, 19:45 GMT: Albania v Finland (Tirana)
- Thu 12 Nov, 19:45 GMT: San Marino v Belarus (Serravalle)
- Sun 15 Nov, 17:00 GMT: Finland v San Marino (Helsinki)
- Sun 15 Nov, 17:00 GMT: Belarus v Albania (Budapest)
Albania, Belarus and Finland are separated by two points and all three can still be promoted. Albania host Finland on 12 November and play Belarus in Budapest on 15 November.
San Marino are certain to finish fourth, which in this edition carries no relegation: they stay in League C.
| Team | P | GD | Pts | Can still finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montenegro | 4 | +3 | 10 | 1st or 2nd |
| Cyprus | 4 | +2 | 7 | 1st to 3rd |
| Armenia | 4 | −1 | 4 | 2nd to 4th |
| Latvia | 4 | −4 | 1 | 3rd or 4th |
- Thu 12 Nov, 17:00 GMT: Armenia v Cyprus (Yerevan)
- Thu 12 Nov, 19:45 GMT: Montenegro v Latvia (Podgorica)
- Sun 15 Nov, 14:00 GMT: Latvia v Armenia (Riga)
- Sun 15 Nov, 14:00 GMT: Cyprus v Montenegro (Limassol)
Montenegro are certain to finish in the top two, and are promoted unless they lose in Limassol on 15 November. Cyprus can win the group only by beating Montenegro.
Latvia can only move off fourth by beating Armenia in Riga, and fourth costs them nothing in this league.
| Team | P | GD | Pts | Can still finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovakia | 4 | +7 | 10 | 1st or 2nd |
| Faroe Islands | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1st to 4th |
| Moldova | 4 | −5 | 4 | 2nd to 4th |
| Kazakhstan | 4 | −2 | 2 | 2nd to 4th |
- Fri 13 Nov, 17:00 GMT: Moldova v Kazakhstan (Chisinau)
- Fri 13 Nov, 19:45 GMT: Slovakia v Faroe Islands (Košice)
- Mon 16 Nov, 15:00 GMT: Faroe Islands v Moldova (Tórshavn)
- Mon 16 Nov, 15:00 GMT: Kazakhstan v Slovakia (Astana)
Slovakia are promoted unless they lose both games, at home to the Faroe Islands and away to Kazakhstan. Even then they finish no lower than second.
Behind them, the Faroe Islands, Moldova and Kazakhstan are separated by two points, and second place carries a place in the League B/C play-offs.
| Team | P | GD | Pts | Can still finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iceland | 4 | +6 | 8 | 1st to 3rd |
| Estonia | 4 | +1 | 6 | 1st to 4th |
| Bulgaria | 4 | −2 | 4 | 1st to 4th |
| Luxembourg | 4 | −5 | 3 | 1st to 4th |
- Fri 13 Nov, 19:45 GMT: Luxembourg v Estonia (Luxembourg)
- Fri 13 Nov, 19:45 GMT: Bulgaria v Iceland (Plovdiv)
- Mon 16 Nov, 17:00 GMT: Iceland v Luxembourg (Reykjavik)
- Mon 16 Nov, 17:00 GMT: Estonia v Bulgaria (Tallinn)
Iceland are promoted if they beat Bulgaria in Plovdiv and Luxembourg in Reykjavik. Estonia, Bulgaria and Luxembourg can each still finish anywhere from first to fourth; Iceland cannot finish fourth.
Luxembourg, on 3 points, can still top the group, but only by winning both games, at home to Estonia and away in Iceland, and even that does not guarantee it.
League D
Two groups of three, with one game left in each. Every team moves up to League C whatever happens, so these groups decide ranking positions, which matter later for the EURO 2028 play-off order, not league.
| Team | P | GD | Pts | Can still finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malta | 3 | +2 | 7 | 1st or 2nd |
| Gibraltar | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1st to 3rd |
| Andorra | 3 | −2 | 1 | 2nd or 3rd |
- Fri 13 Nov, 19:45 GMT: Andorra v Gibraltar (Encamp)
- Mon 16 Nov, 19:45 GMT: Gibraltar v Malta (Gibraltar)
Malta stay first unless Gibraltar beat Andorra on 13 November and then beat Malta on 16 November. All three teams move up to League C either way.
| Team | P | GD | Pts | Can still finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Azerbaijan | 3 | +1 | 5 | 1st to 3rd |
| Lithuania | 3 | +1 | 4 | 1st to 3rd |
| Liechtenstein | 2 | −2 | 1 | 1st to 3rd |
- Fri 13 Nov, 19:45 GMT: Liechtenstein v Azerbaijan (Vaduz)
- Mon 16 Nov, 17:00 GMT: Lithuania v Liechtenstein (Kaunas)
Azerbaijan, Lithuania and Liechtenstein can all still finish first. All three move up to League C either way.
How promotion and relegation bets settle
Three different questions are easy to confuse here. “To finish bottom of the group” is settled on 17 November at the latest, on the group table. “To be relegated” is not the same question in this edition: in League A only the two lowest-ranked fourth-placed teams go down that evening, in League B every fourth-placed team still has a play-off, and in League C nobody is relegated at all. And “to be promoted” for a League B or League C runner-up, or “to stay up” for a League A team in the play-offs, is not decided until the ties are played in March 2027.
The wording of the market and the operator’s settlement rules decide which of those dates applies, and whether a play-off counts. Markets that settle on a route rather than on a single result are covered in to-qualify betting explained. A play-off tie level after two legs goes to extra time and penalties, and what a bet on one of those legs covers is set out in extra time and penalties: what your bet covers.
The “can still finish” column is also a check on any price. An outcome that is no longer possible cannot win, and an outcome that is settled cannot lose. Group and promotion markets are outrights, usually priced with a wider margin than a single match; the margin calculator shows how wide, the odds converter turns a price into the probability it implies, and outright betting explained covers how those books are built. If a November match is postponed or abandoned, the rules in abandoned and postponed matches apply to bets on that match.
What England, Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland, the Republic of Ireland and Malta need, result by result, is on Nations League November 2026: what each team needs. Dates, format and the season tracker are on the Nations League 2026/27 hub, and the route from Nations League group winners into the EURO 2028 play-offs is in our EURO 2028 qualifying guide.
Frequently asked questions
How many teams are relegated from Nations League A in 2026/27?
Two go down directly: the two lowest-ranked of the four fourth-placed teams in League A. Four more League A teams go into the League A/B play-offs in March 2027: the two best fourth-placed teams and the two lowest-ranked third-placed teams. Each plays a League B runner-up over two legs, and the losers play in League B in 2028/29. So between two and six of the sixteen League A teams can end up in League B.
Is anyone relegated from League C?
No. The 2028/29 edition has three leagues instead of four, so there is no League D to drop into. Under Article 19.06 every team ranked 37th or lower in the final overall rankings plays in League C, and that includes the third- and fourth-placed teams in League C as well as all six League D teams. In League C, finishing fourth costs nothing in terms of league.
When is Nations League promotion and relegation decided?
In two steps. The group winners of Leagues B and C, who are promoted, are known when their groups finish between 15 and 17 November 2026. The two League A teams relegated directly are known only on the evening of 17 November, once all four League A groups are complete, because they come from a comparison across groups. Every place decided by the League A/B and League B/C play-offs waits until those play-offs are played, from 25 to 30 March 2027.
Is finishing bottom of a group the same as being relegated?
Not in this edition. In League A, the two best fourth-placed teams go into the play-offs and can still stay up. In League B, all four fourth-placed teams go into the League B/C play-offs. In League C, fourth place carries no relegation at all. A market on finishing bottom of a group and a market on relegation can therefore settle differently for the same team.
Can Scotland, Northern Ireland or the Republic of Ireland still be promoted?
Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland can still win their League B groups, which means direct promotion to League A. Scotland cannot: Switzerland already have more points than Scotland can reach, so Scotland's best route is second place in Group B1 and the League A/B play-offs in March. The detailed scenarios for those three teams, and for England, Wales and Malta, are on our November scenarios page.
Sources
Read on 26 October 2026. Standings, results, fixtures, venues and kick-off times are UEFA’s published data after matchday 4. The “can still finish” ranges are our own calculation under Article 15, as described at the top of the page; the rare ties that would go down to disciplinary points or the access list are counted as either order. No operator is named and no price appears on this page.
- UEFA, Regulations of the UEFA Nations League 2026/27, Article 15 — equality of points, league phase — documents.uefa.com
- UEFA, Regulations of the UEFA Nations League 2026/27, Article 16 — match system, play-offs — documents.uefa.com
- UEFA, Regulations of the UEFA Nations League 2026/27, Article 19 — individual league, interim overall and final overall rankings, promotion and relegation — documents.uefa.com
- UEFA, UEFA Nations League standings — uefa.com
18+. A bet on promotion or relegation can stay open until March, long after the games that shaped it. Decide before November how much a position is worth to you, and leave it there rather than adding to it as the table moves. Deposit limits, time-outs and support are on our responsible gambling page.