Nations League After Matchday 4: What England, Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland, Ireland and Malta Need in November
Four of the six league-phase matchdays were played between 24 September and 6 October. The last two follow from 12 to 17 November. This page sets out what each team from the UK, Ireland and Malta needs from those two games, using the competition’s own tiebreak rules. Twice already this autumn, in the groups of Wales and the Republic of Ireland, head-to-head results have put a team with the worse goal difference above one with the better.
Standings and results are UEFA’s, as published after the last matchday 4 game on 6 October. For each group we checked every combination of scores up to 4-4 in the remaining games, ranked under Article 15 of the regulations. Before using it, we tested the same ranking code against UEFA’s published order for all fourteen groups, and it matched every one. Where a result outside that range could change an outcome, the page says so. No tips, no odds, no predicted line-ups.
First, what each finishing position is worth
The 2026/27 regulations, adopted on 15 September 2026, set out who goes where. In League A, finishing third does not on its own mean a play-off, and finishing fourth does not on its own mean relegation. Both positions now lead to a comparison across the four groups. Article 16 sets out who plays in the play-offs, and Article 19.03 sets out who is promoted and relegated.
| 1st or 2nd | Quarter-finals, two legs, 25–30 March 2027 |
| 3rd | Ranked against the other three third-placed teams. Best two stay in League A; lowest two go into the League A/B play-offs |
| 4th | Ranked against the other three fourth-placed teams. Best two go into the League A/B play-offs; lowest two are relegated to League B |
| 1st | Promoted to League A for 2028/29 |
| 2nd | League A/B play-offs, 25–30 March 2027 |
| 3rd | Stays in League B |
| 4th | League B/C play-offs, 25–30 March 2027 |
Play-off ties are two legs, with the team from the lower league at home first. The quarter-finals and both sets of play-offs are played from 25 to 30 March 2027, and the finals from 9 to 13 June 2027. How each knockout round treats extra time is on our Nations League 2026/27 hub.
The one rule that explains most of this page
When teams finish level on points, Article 15 looks first at the matches between those teams: points, then goal difference, then goals scored in those games only. Goal difference across the whole group is only the fifth criterion. The full order, and why it is built that way, is on our Nations League tiebreakers guide.
The one-goal rule. Away goals do not count in the head-to-head. So if a team lost the first meeting by one goal and wins the second by one goal, the two games cancel out completely. Points are level, goal difference is level, and goals scored are level, whatever the actual scores. Lose 0-1 and win 2-1, and each side has two goals. The head-to-head is then exhausted, and the whole-group figures decide. Three of the six teams on this page face exactly that situation in November: England in Spain, Wales in Norway, and Ireland against Kosovo.
For a bet on a group position, the practical point is that the margin of one particular match can matter more than any other result in the group. That is a fact about how the table is built, not a view on which side of any match to back.
League A after matchday 4
UEFA confirmed Portugal and Spain as the first two quarter-finalists after matchday 4. The other six places are still open.
| Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| France | 4 | +5 | 10 |
| Italy | 4 | +3 | 7 |
| Belgium | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| Türkiye | 4 | -9 | 0 |
Open. France can still finish anywhere from first to third.
| Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | 4 | +2 | 8 |
| Greece | 4 | +2 | 8 |
| Germany | 4 | +1 | 5 |
| Serbia | 4 | -5 | 0 |
Netherlands are first only on goals scored (7 to 5). Their meeting in Greece ended 2-2, and they play again on 13 November.
| Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 4 | +7 | 12 |
| England | 4 | +11 | 9 |
| Croatia | 4 | -10 | 3 |
| Czechia | 4 | -8 | 0 |
Spain are through. England are second with the best goal difference in the group.
| Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portugal | 4 | +5 | 12 |
| Denmark | 4 | 0 | 6 |
| Wales | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| Norway | 4 | -2 | 3 |
Portugal are through. Wales are third with a worse goal difference than Norway, because Wales won the only meeting 2-1.
Two of the four tables are decided by something other than points and goal difference. In A4, Wales sit above Norway with the worse goal difference. In A2, Netherlands and Greece are level on points and on goal difference, their only meeting was a draw, and Netherlands lead on goals scored. When the two meet again on 13 November, a winner takes the head-to-head outright. Another draw sends any tie between them back to the whole-group figures.
England: England are as good as through. The group title depends on one result in Madrid.
League A, Group A3 · Now: 2nd, 9 points, goal difference +11
- Thursday 12 November, England v Croatia, Wembley Stadium, 19:45 GMT
- Sunday 15 November, Spain v England, Estadio Metropolitano, Madrid, 19:45 GMT
Spain beat England 3-2 at Wembley in September. To finish above Spain, England must win in Madrid and end with at least as many points as Spain. A draw or a defeat there leaves England second.
If England and Spain finish level on points, a win in Madrid by two goals or more puts England ahead on head-to-head. A one-goal win leaves the head-to-head level, and the whole-group goal difference decides. England's is +11 now and Spain's is +7.
Croatia are the only side who can catch England. To finish above them, Croatia need to win at Wembley by at least seven goals, beat Czechia, and see England lose in Spain. England won 7-0 in Croatia in October, which is why the margin is so large. Short of that, England finish in the top two.
| England’s own results | Possible final positions |
|---|---|
| Beat Croatia, win in Spain | 1st |
| Draw with Croatia, win in Spain | 1st or 2nd |
| Lose to Croatia, win in Spain | 1st or 2nd |
| Any result against Croatia, draw or lose in Spain | 2nd |
Wales: Wales are above Norway on head-to-head, not on goal difference. Second place is still possible, but only with more points than Denmark.
League A, Group A4 · Now: 3rd, 3 points, goal difference -3
- Saturday 14 November, Norway v Wales, Ullevaal Stadion, Oslo, 17:00 GMT
- Tuesday 17 November, Wales v Portugal, Cardiff City Stadium, 19:45 GMT
Wales and Norway both have 3 points. Norway's goal difference is better (-2 against -3), but Wales won the only meeting 2-1, and head-to-head comes first. A Norway win in Oslo by two goals or more reverses that. A one-goal Norway win leaves the head-to-head level, and the whole-group goal difference decides.
Denmark beat Wales 2-0 and 1-0, so any two-way tie on points between them goes to Denmark. Apart from the rare three-way tie described next, Wales finish second only if they end with more points than Denmark. That means at least seven points for Wales, so at least one win and no defeat, while Denmark drop points.
Watch for one rare outcome. If Wales win in Oslo but lose to Portugal, while Portugal beat Denmark and Norway win in Denmark, then Wales, Denmark and Norway all finish on six points. Each of them will have beaten one of the others twice, so the head-to-head points are level too. The order then comes down to goal difference across the six matches between the three, and Wales could finish anywhere from second to fourth.
Third place is not safe on its own. It leads to a comparison with the other three third-placed teams, explained below, and Wales are currently in the bottom two of it.
| Wales’s own results | Possible final positions |
|---|---|
| Win in Norway, beat Portugal | 2nd or 3rd |
| Win in Norway, draw with Portugal | 2nd or 3rd |
| Win in Norway, lose to Portugal | 2nd, 3rd or 4th |
| Draw in Norway, beat Portugal | 2nd, 3rd or 4th |
| Draw in Norway, draw or lose to Portugal | 3rd or 4th |
| Lose in Norway, beat Portugal | 3rd or 4th |
| Lose in Norway, draw or lose to Portugal | 4th |
Scotland: Scotland cannot win the group. Second place needs more points than Slovenia, and fourth place needs a home defeat.
League B, Group B1 · Now: 3rd, 4 points, goal difference -2
- Friday 13 November, Scotland v North Macedonia, Hampden Park, 19:45 GMT
- Monday 16 November, Switzerland v Scotland, Sitterstadion, St Gallen, 19:45 GMT
Switzerland have 12 points and Scotland can reach 10 at most, so promotion as group winners is gone.
Slovenia have 7 points. They drew 0-0 with Scotland in Ljubljana and won 2-1 at Hampden Park, so Slovenia win any tie on points with Scotland. Scotland reach second, and the League A/B play-offs, only by finishing with more points than Slovenia.
Scotland can only drop to fourth, and into the League B/C play-offs, if they lose at home to North Macedonia and also fail to win in Switzerland. Even then, North Macedonia need a result in Slovenia on 16 November. Scotland won 2-0 in Skopje, so North Macedonia win the head-to-head only with a win at Hampden by three goals or more.
| Scotland’s own results | Possible final positions |
|---|---|
| Beat North Macedonia, win or draw in Switzerland | 2nd or 3rd |
| Draw with North Macedonia, win in Switzerland | 2nd or 3rd |
| Beat or draw with North Macedonia, lose in Switzerland | 3rd |
| Draw with North Macedonia, draw in Switzerland | 3rd |
| Lose to North Macedonia, win in Switzerland | 3rd |
| Lose to North Macedonia, draw or lose in Switzerland | 3rd or 4th |
Northern Ireland: Northern Ireland cannot finish fourth. A win in Budapest wins the group, whatever else happens.
League B, Group B2 · Now: 1st, 8 points, goal difference +4, unbeaten and without conceding
- Saturday 14 November, Northern Ireland v Ukraine, Windsor Park, Belfast, 19:45 GMT
- Tuesday 17 November, Hungary v Northern Ireland, Puskás Aréna, Budapest, 19:45 GMT
Relegation is off the table. Only Hungary and Ukraine can still finish above Northern Ireland, so the worst outcome is third, which means staying in League B.
The group is decided in Budapest. The first meeting with Hungary ended 0-0 at Windsor Park, so the winner on 17 November also wins the head-to-head. A Northern Ireland win there wins the group in every case. A defeat leaves Hungary ahead in any tie on points.
Northern Ireland won 3-0 away to Ukraine, a game played in Trnava, Slovakia. Ukraine take the head-to-head only with a win in Belfast by four goals or more.
| Northern Ireland’s own results | Possible final positions |
|---|---|
| Win in Hungary, any result against Ukraine | 1st |
| Beat or draw with Ukraine, draw in Hungary | 1st (1st or 2nd after a draw with Ukraine) |
| Beat Ukraine, lose in Hungary | 1st or 2nd |
| Draw with Ukraine, lose in Hungary | 2nd |
| Lose to Ukraine, draw in Hungary | 1st, 2nd or 3rd |
| Lose to Ukraine, lose in Hungary | 2nd or 3rd |
Republic of Ireland: Ireland have a better goal difference than Kosovo and sit below them. Two wins mean promotion; the Kosovo game decides almost everything else.
League B, Group B3 · Now: 3rd, 5 points, goal difference +2
- Saturday 14 November, Austria v Republic of Ireland, Oberösterreich Arena, Linz, 19:45 GMT
- Tuesday 17 November, Republic of Ireland v Kosovo, Aviva Stadium, Dublin, 19:45 GMT
Kosovo and Ireland both have 5 points. Ireland's goal difference is +2 and Kosovo's is -1, but Kosovo won the only meeting 1-0 and rank higher. It is the head-to-head rule overriding the goal-difference column in its plainest form.
Ireland host Kosovo on 17 November. A win by two goals or more gives Ireland the head-to-head outright. A one-goal win, whether 1-0 or 3-2, leaves points, goal difference and goals scored in the two meetings all level, and the whole-group goal difference decides instead.
Win both games and Ireland win the group and are promoted to League A, whatever happens elsewhere. Beat Kosovo and Ireland are certain to finish in the top three, which keeps them out of the League B/C play-offs.
Austria lead on 8 points. The first meeting ended 2-2 at the Aviva Stadium, so the result in Linz settles the head-to-head between them: a winner takes it, and a draw sends any tie to the whole-group figures.
| Republic of Ireland’s own results | Possible final positions |
|---|---|
| Win in Austria, beat Kosovo | 1st |
| Win in Austria, draw with Kosovo | 1st, 2nd or 3rd |
| Win in Austria, lose to Kosovo | 1st to 4th |
| Draw in Austria, beat Kosovo | 1st or 2nd |
| Draw in Austria, draw with Kosovo | 2nd or 3rd |
| Draw in Austria, lose to Kosovo | 3rd or 4th |
| Lose in Austria, beat Kosovo | 2nd or 3rd |
| Lose in Austria, draw with Kosovo | 2nd, 3rd or 4th |
| Lose in Austria, lose to Kosovo | 3rd or 4th |
Malta: Malta are moving up whatever happens. Winning the group still matters.
League D, Group D1 · Now: 1st, 7 points from three matches
- Monday 16 November, Gibraltar v Malta, Europa Point Stadium, 19:45 GMT (20:45 in Malta)
League D has two groups of three, and UEFA's explainer says all six teams move up to League C for the next edition. The 2028/29 competition has three leagues instead of four.
Malta lose top spot only if Gibraltar beat Andorra on 13 November and then beat Malta on 16 November. Gibraltar would finish on 8 points to Malta's 7.
Being a group winner matters later. In the EURO 2028 play-offs, the best-ranked League D group winner is next in line after the group winners of Leagues A, B and C. Our EURO 2028 guide explains how far down that list the places are expected to go.
| Malta’s own results | Possible final positions |
|---|---|
| Win or draw in Gibraltar | 1st |
| Lose in Gibraltar | 1st or 2nd |
League A’s other table: third and fourth places compared
Whoever finishes third in each League A group is ranked against the other three. Article 19.01 says that, for this comparison, the results against fourth-placed teams are not taken into account. The fourth-placed teams are then compared using all their results. The table below shows what that comparison would look like if the league phase had ended after matchday 4. It did not end then. Two matchdays remain, and which team is fourth in each group can still change, so this is an illustration of the method, not a forecast.
| 1. Belgium (A1) | 3 pts, GD -2 | Win over Italy counts; 3-0 over Türkiye is removed |
| 2. Germany (A2) | 2 pts, GD -1 | 2-0 over Serbia is removed |
| 3. Wales (A4) | 0 pts, GD -4 | 2-1 over Norway, their only win, is removed |
| 4. Croatia (A3) | 0 pts, GD -11 | 2-1 over Czechia is removed |
Top two stay in League A. Bottom two go into the League A/B play-offs.
| 1. Norway (A4) | 3 pts, GD -2 |
| 2. Serbia (A2) | 0 pts, GD -5 |
| 3. Czechia (A3) | 0 pts, GD -8 |
| 4. Türkiye (A1) | 0 pts, GD -9 |
Top two go into the League A/B play-offs. Bottom two are relegated to League B.
Wales show why this matters. In their own group table they have 3 points. In the comparison of third-placed teams they would have none, because their only win came against Norway, the team below them, and that result is removed. A team can finish third in its group and still fall into the bottom two of the table that decides whether it stays in League A.
This changes how a relegation or promotion bet settles. Group position is final on the evening of 17 November. Whether a League A third-placed team stays up is known the same evening, but only once all four groups have finished. For the teams that go into the play-offs, the answer waits until March 2027. If a bet is described only as settling on the “final standings”, the operator’s rules decide which of those dates applies. Our guide to to-qualify betting covers markets that are settled on a route rather than on a result.
How these markets settle, and what can still go wrong
A bet on a team to win its group, to finish in the top two, or to be promoted settles on the table UEFA confirms, built under Article 15. It does not settle on a broadcaster’s graphic sorted by goal difference. A bet on a single match settles on that match, over ninety minutes plus stoppage time, and a league-phase match can end in a draw. These are different questions, and a group bet does not become a match bet because one game decides it.
Long-dated positions in this competition are priced weeks in advance, and the bookmaker’s margin on an outright market is usually wider than on a single match. The margin calculator shows how much, and outright betting explained covers how those prices are built. If a November fixture is postponed or abandoned, what happens to a bet on the match depends on the operator’s rules for that match, set out in abandoned and postponed matches. Combining a group position with match results in one bet adds the problems of both, which is covered in accumulator betting explained.
The route from this competition into the EURO 2028 play-offs, which is where Nations League group winners matter again in 2028, is set out in our EURO 2028 qualifying guide.
Frequently asked questions
Are England through to the Nations League quarter-finals?
Not mathematically, but very nearly. After matchday 4 England have 9 points, Spain 12 and Croatia 3. The only way England can finish below second is to lose to Croatia at Wembley by at least seven goals, lose in Spain and see Croatia beat Czechia. UEFA confirmed Spain and Portugal as the first two quarter-finalists after matchday 4. England top the group only if they win in Spain on 15 November and finish with at least as many points as Spain.
Why are Kosovo above the Republic of Ireland when Ireland have the better goal difference?
Because the Nations League breaks a tie on points with head-to-head results first. Both teams have 5 points after four games and Kosovo won the only meeting 1-0, so Kosovo rank higher even though Ireland's goal difference across the group is +2 and Kosovo's is -1. Ireland host Kosovo on 17 November. A win by two goals or more puts Ireland ahead on head-to-head. A one-goal win leaves the head-to-head level, and the whole-group goal difference decides.
Can Wales still reach the Nations League quarter-finals?
Yes, by finishing second in Group A4. In almost every case that means ending with more points than Denmark, who have 6 points and beat Wales in both meetings, so a two-way tie on points goes to Denmark. The one exception is a three-way tie on six points with Denmark and Norway, decided by goal difference in the matches between the three. Wales have 3 points, with Norway away on 14 November and Portugal at home on 17 November, so they can reach 9 at most.
What happens to the third-placed teams in Nations League A?
Under the 2026/27 regulations the four third-placed teams are ranked against each other. The two best stay in League A. The two lowest go into the League A/B play-offs in March 2027 against League B runners-up. For this comparison, results against the fourth-placed team in each group are removed. If the league phase had ended after matchday 4, Wales would have had no points left in that comparison, because their only win was against Norway, the team below them.
Do away goals count in the Nations League head-to-head?
No. Inside the head-to-head, only points, goal difference and goals scored in the matches between the tied teams count. Away goals appear later in the list, as a whole-group criterion. That is why a one-goal defeat followed by a one-goal win against the same opponent always cancels out completely: points, goal difference and goals scored all come out level, whatever the scores.
Sources and method
All sources were read on 7 October 2026. Results, standings, kick-off times and venues are UEFA’s own published data. Kick-off times are given in GMT, the UK and Irish time after the clocks change on 25 October. The possible positions in each team’s table come from checking every combination of scores up to 4-4 in that group’s remaining matches, ranked under Article 15. Where a statement depends on a bigger margin, such as Croatia’s seven-goal route past England, the page works it out separately. In a very small number of combinations, the order would be decided by disciplinary points or by the access list. Those combinations are not reflected in the tables, and only two teams on this page are touched by them: Scotland, in a rare case between third and fourth, and Northern Ireland, in a rare case between second and third. No operator is named and no price appears on this page.
- UEFA, Regulations of the UEFA Nations League 2026/27 (adopted 15 September 2026), Articles 12, 14, 15, 16 and 19 and Annex B — documents.uefa.com
- UEFA, 2026/27 UEFA Nations League: all you need to know — promotion, relegation and play-offs, key dates — uefa.com
- UEFA, 2026/27 UEFA Nations League: all the league phase fixtures and results — uefa.com
- UEFA, Nations League standings — uefa.com
- UEFA, matchday 4 highlights: Portugal first into the quarter-finals — uefa.com
- UEFA, matchday 4 highlights: Spain into the quarter-finals — uefa.com
18+. Five weeks pass between the October and November matchdays, and a position on a group stays open for all of them. That gap makes it tempting to add a second bet to protect the first. Decide what a position is worth before you place it, and leave it there. Deposit limits, time-outs and support are on our responsible gambling page.