Break-Even Odds Calculator
Two questions with one formula. If you win a given share of your bets, what is the lowest average price you can take without losing money? And if you bet at a given price, how often do you have to win? Enter both, add exchange commission if it applies, and the calculator answers in decimal and American odds, with the result over 100 bets.
Quick answer: break-even odds = 1 ÷ win rate, and break-even win rate = 1 ÷ odds. At the standard US price of −110 (decimal 1.909) you need to win 52.38% of your bets; at evens, 50%.
Leave commission at 0 for a bookmaker; use 2% or 5% for typical exchange rates. American or fractional prices can be turned into decimals with the odds converter.
Result
Your win rate is above what this price needs. Over a small sample that can easily be luck.
How Break-Even Odds Are Worked Out
A bet breaks even when what the wins pay equals what the losses cost. With a win rate p and decimal odds d, each winning unit pays d − 1 and each losing unit costs 1, so the record breaks even when p × (d − 1) = 1 − p. Solve for d and you get d = 1 ÷ p; solve for p and you get p = 1 ÷ d. Commission c on winnings reduces each win to (d − 1) × (1 − c), which is why the exchange columns below need higher prices for the same win rate.
American odds and the win rate they need
Most US and Canadian point-spread and totals markets are priced at −110 on both sides. That price is why 52.38%, not 50%, is the number American bettors quote: the extra 2.38 points are the bookmaker's margin. Two sides at −110 add up to 104.76% implied probability; the margin calculator works that out for any market.
| American | Decimal | Win rate needed |
|---|---|---|
| −200 | 1.500 | 66.67% |
| −150 | 1.667 | 60.00% |
| −120 | 1.833 | 54.55% |
| −115 | 1.870 | 53.49% |
| −110 | 1.909 | 52.38% |
| −105 | 1.952 | 51.22% |
| +100 | 2.000 | 50.00% |
| +150 | 2.500 | 40.00% |
| +200 | 3.000 | 33.33% |
Win rate and the odds it needs, with commission
| Win rate | Bookmaker | Exchange 2% | Exchange 5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40% | 2.500 | 2.531 | 2.579 |
| 45% | 2.222 | 2.247 | 2.287 |
| 50% | 2.000 | 2.020 | 2.053 |
| 52% | 1.923 | 1.942 | 1.972 |
| 55% | 1.818 | 1.835 | 1.861 |
| 60% | 1.667 | 1.680 | 1.702 |
| 65% | 1.538 | 1.549 | 1.567 |
Worked example: 100 bets at −110
Each win at 1.909 pays 0.909 units. Win 52 and lose 48: 52 × 0.909 = 47.27 against 48 lost, −0.73 units. Win 55 and lose 45: 50.00 against 45, +5.00 units. Three extra wins in a hundred separate a losing record from a winning one, which is also why a hundred bets are far too few to tell which one you have.
Break-even is the floor, not the target. To size stakes when you believe your win rate is above it, the Kelly criterion calculator shows how quickly the stake should fall as the edge shrinks, and why an estimate that is slightly wrong turns a positive edge into a loss.
Related Calculators
Break-even odds tell you the price you need. Whether your own record actually beats that price is a question for the betting ROI calculator.
On quarter-goal Asian lines, half of the stake can be refunded while the other half wins or loses at the full price, so the break-even point moves. The Asian handicap calculatorsettles each half separately.
Long prices need a small probability to break even: at decimal odds of 9.00 it is 1 ÷ 9 = 11.1%. That is the territory of scoreline betting, which the correct score calculatorprices from expected goals.
Frequently Asked Questions
How do you calculate break-even odds?
Break-even decimal odds = 1 ÷ win rate. If you win 55% of your bets, you need average odds of 1 ÷ 0.55 = 1.818 to break even. On an exchange that charges commission c on winnings, the formula becomes 1 + (1 ÷ win rate − 1) ÷ (1 − c): 1.835 at 2% and 1.861 at 5% for the same 55%.
What win rate do you need at −110?
52.38%. American odds of −110 mean risking 110 to win 100, decimal 1.909, and 1 ÷ 1.909 = 0.5238. Win 52 of 100 bets at −110 and you are still down about 0.73 units; win 55 and you are up about 5 units, before any other costs.
What is the break-even win rate at evens?
50%. At evens, decimal 2.00 or American +100, a win pays the same as a loss costs, so you need to win half your bets. At 2.50 (+150) the break-even rate falls to 40%, and at 1.50 (−200) it rises to 66.67%.
Is break-even odds the same as implied probability?
They are two sides of the same number without commission: the implied probability of a price is 1 ÷ odds, and the break-even odds of a win rate is 1 ÷ win rate. They separate as soon as commission or a fee on winnings applies, because the price you need has to cover the deduction as well.
Does breaking even mean a betting strategy works?
No. A record above the break-even rate over a few dozen bets is well within normal variance; it takes hundreds of bets at similar odds before a small edge can be told apart from luck. The calculator shows what a win rate would need, not whether you have it.
Most bettors do not beat the break-even rate over time, because the margin is built into every price. Treat betting as entertainment with a fixed budget. 18+. If gambling stops being fun, see our responsible gambling resources.