Penalty Shoot-out Betting Explained: Markets, Odds and How They Settle
A penalty shoot-out is not part of the match. The Laws of the Game say the kicks are taken after the match has ended, so they never change a match result, a correct score or a goals line. They settle only two kinds of bet: the ones that ask who goes through, and the ones that name the shoot-out itself.
This guide covers the second kind, which most guides skip: whether a tie will reach penalties, who wins them, what the score is likely to be, and how the rules of the shoot-out decide those markets. It uses the Carabao Cup fourth round of 27–29 October 2026, where three ties out of eight were settled on penalties, as the worked example. No tips, no odds on specific matches.
This week's three shoot-outs, settled
In the Carabao Cup a level score after 90 minutes goes straight to penalties in every round before the semi-finals; there is no extra time. That makes the fourth round a clean example, because nothing is played between the final whistle and the first kick.
| Tie | Played | After 90 | Penalties | What it shows |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fleetwood Town v Arsenal | Tue 27 Oct | 1-1 | Fleetwood won 5-3 | Ended after nine kicks: Fleetwood scored all five, so Arsenal's fifth was never taken. Arsenal finished the match with ten men after a late red card. |
| Liverpool v Chelsea | Wed 28 Oct | 1-1 | Liverpool won 6-5 | Level after five kicks each, decided in the first round of sudden death. |
| Manchester City v Brighton | Wed 28 Oct | 2-2 | City won 4-3 | A 2-2 draw for every match bet, including over 3.5 goals, which lost. |
Take the biggest result of the round. Fleetwood Town, a League Two side, drew 1-1 with Arsenal and won 5-3 on penalties. A bet on Arsenal to win the match lost, and so did a bet on Arsenal to qualify. A bet on the draw won, and so did Fleetwood to qualify. Under 2.5 goals won: the eight penalties scored in the shoot-out add nothing to the goal count. A bet on the shoot-out happening won; a bet on Arsenal to win the shoot-out lost.
The other five ties were won inside 90 minutes, so every shoot-out market on them was either a losing “Yes” or, for the markets that only exist if a shoot-out happens, void. The quarter-finals are scheduled for the week of 14 December 2026 under the same no-extra-time rule. The general reasoning behind the ninety-minute rule, and the markets that run to the end of extra time, is in our guide to extra time and penalties: what your bet covers.
Which bets a shoot-out settles, and which it never touches
| Market | Settled on | Does the shoot-out count? |
|---|---|---|
| Match result, correct score, goals, both teams to score | The 90 minutes plus stoppage time. | Never. The shoot-out is outside the match. |
| To qualify / to progress / to lift the trophy | Who goes through, however it happens. | Yes. A shoot-out win is a qualification like any other. |
| Method of victory (90 minutes, extra time, penalties) | Which team goes through and at which stage. | Yes. The penalties outcome is a separate selection for each team. |
| Will there be a penalty shoot-out? Yes/No | Whether the tie reaches penalties. | Yes. No wins if the tie is decided earlier; it is not void. |
| Shoot-out winner, shoot-out correct score, sudden death Yes/No | What happens in the shoot-out itself. | Only exists if there is a shoot-out; normally void otherwise. |
Two lines in that table cause most disputes. The first is the difference between a void and a loser: “Will there be a shoot-out? No” is a real outcome that wins when the tie is decided earlier, while a shoot-out winner bet on a tie that never got there is normally void and the stake comes back. The second is a penalty awarded during the match. That belongs to the 90 minutes (or to extra time), counts in every goal market and is covered in our guide to penalty betting rules; a shoot-out kick is a different event.
Cards are the grey area. The Laws let a referee caution or send off a player during the shoot-out, and they do not carry match cautions into it. Whether a card shown during the kicks counts for a card or booking-points market is decided by the operator's rules, not by the Laws, so read them before backing a card line on a tie that may go to penalties. Operators also differ on how they settle shoot-out player markets when a kick is retaken; the referee's record keeps only the kick that stood.
How often a tie reaches penalties
The chance of a shoot-out is the chance of a level score at the point where the competition stops playing, and that depends on one rule: whether extra time comes first.
- No extra time(Carabao Cup before the semi-finals, the Nations League third-place match): the shoot-out happens exactly when the match is drawn after 90 minutes. “Shoot-out: Yes” and the draw in the match result market are the same event priced twice.
- Extra time first (most knockout finals, the second leg of a Nations League quarter-final with the aggregate level): the shoot-out needs a draw after 90 minutes and a level 30 minutes after that.
Evenly matched tie: chance of a penalty shoot-out
| Expected goals in the match | No extra time | Level after extra time, if level at 90 | With extra time |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.2 | 29.1% | 54.7% | 15.9% |
| 2.4 | 27.7% | 52.4% | 14.5% |
| 2.6 | 26.4% | 50.3% | 13.3% |
| 2.8 | 25.3% | 48.4% | 12.2% |
| 3.0 | 24.3% | 46.6% | 11.3% |
Model: each side's goals arrive independently at a constant rate (Poisson), sides equal, extra time scored at the same rate per minute as the 90. Extra time is often tighter than that, which would push the last column up.
So for a balanced tie the answer is roughly one in four without extra time and one in seven or eight with it. Three out of eight in this week's Carabao Cup round is above one in four, but eight ties is far too few to read anything into; it is what a coin with a one-in-four chance does now and then.
The practical use is the no-extra-time identity. When a shoot-out market sits next to the match result on the same fixture, the “Yes” price and the draw price describe the same outcome, so their implied probabilities should be close; a large gap means one of the two carries a bigger margin. The odds converter turns each price into a percentage and the margin calculator shows how much of each book is margin.
The rules of the shoot-out that decide the markets
Law 10.3 of the 2026/27 Laws of the Game sets the procedure. Each rule below changes how at least one shoot-out market can settle.
- Two coin tosses. The first picks the goal, the second the team that chooses whether to kick first or second. Nothing in the Laws favours either team.
- Five kicks each, alternately, ending early when the result is out of reach.Fleetwood scored their fifth to lead 5-3 with Arsenal having taken four; even a goal with Arsenal's fifth could not draw level, so it was never taken. That is why a shoot-out can end 3-0 or 5-3 and why a “total kicks” line is not simply ten.
- Then sudden death. Level after five each, the kicks go on in pairs until one team has scored one more from the same number of kicks. Every sudden-death win is by exactly one goal: 6-5, 7-6 and so on.
- Everyone kicks before anyone kicks twice. All eligible players, goalkeepers included, must take a kick before any player takes a second one.
- Only players on the pitch at the end, in equal numbers. A player sent off during the match cannot take part, and the side with more players must reduce to the same number before the kicks. Arsenal finished with ten at Fleetwood, so a home side still on eleven had to leave one player out. The one exception is a substitute for a goalkeeper who cannot continue.
- Encroachment and retakes. If the goalkeeper commits an offence and the kick is missed, it is retaken; if the kicker commits the offence, the kick is recorded as missed. The record of kicks, not the first attempt, is what settles a shoot-out score.
The same Law is the one that puts the shoot-out after the end of the match, which is why none of its goals reach a match market. Ice hockey uses a different procedure with different settlement rules; it is covered in our NHL overtime and shootout guide.
What a shoot-out score usually looks like
A shoot-out correct score market can be priced from one number: the chance that a single kick is scored. We do not quote a measured conversion rate here, because published figures vary with the competition and the period counted. The table works the procedure above through every possible sequence of kicks for three neutral rates, with both teams equally good.
| Final score (winner first) | 70% of kicks scored | 75% | 80% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-4 | 15.9% | 19.3% | 22.7% |
| 4-3 | 21.2% | 18.8% | 14.9% |
| 4-2 | 17.2% | 16.7% | 14.5% |
| 5-3 | 6.9% | 10.0% | 13.4% |
| 6-5 | 5.9% | 7.1% | 8.0% |
| 3-2 | 9.0% | 5.3% | 2.6% |
| 3-1 | 8.0% | 5.2% | 2.9% |
| 7-6 or longer | 6.9% | 10.6% | 15.9% |
Other scores (4-1, 3-0, 2-1 and so on) make up the remainder. Three things stand out, and none of them depends much on the exact rate.
- 5-4 and 4-3 are the core of the market, close to two shoot-outs in five between them at the middle rate. All three of this week's scores, 5-3, 6-5 and 4-3, sit in the top five rows.
- Sudden death is common. About 27%, 29% and 32% of shoot-outs reach it at the three rates. Once there, each pair of kicks settles it with a chance of about 42%, 38% and 32%, so long runs are not rare: at 75%, about 7% of all shoot-outs are still going after three rounds of sudden death.
- Many end early.Between 41% and 47% finish before the tenth kick because one side can no longer catch up. The expected number of kicks is about 10.5 to 11.4, which is the figure a “total kicks” line is built around.
On who wins, the model gives each side 50%, and a real price should not stray far from that. Whether kicking first is an advantage has been argued over in academic studies without a settled answer, and the Laws give the choice to whoever wins the second toss. The practical consequence for to-qualify prices is that a favourite's edge is worth much less once a tie reaches penalties than it is over 90 minutes. Shoot-out scores also behave like any other correct score market: many outcomes, each with a modest chance, and room for a wide margin across the book.
Where the next shoot-outs can come from
- Emirates FA Cup, first round proper, around Saturday 7 November 2026. Since 2024/25 the FA Cup has been played without replays from the first round proper, under an agreement that runs for at least six seasons, so a level tie is settled on the day. Second round: Saturday 5 December.
- Carabao Cup quarter-finals, week of 14 December 2026. Still no extra time: a draw at 90 minutes goes straight to penalties.
- MLS Cup Playoffs, Wild Card on 18 November and Round One from 20 November 2026. No extra time in either round: a level game goes straight to penalties, and a shoot-out win counts as a full win in the best-of-three series. How those bets settle is in our MLS Cup Playoffs 2026 guide.
- Nations League quarter-finals, 25–30 March 2027. Two legs; if the aggregate is level there are 30 minutes of extra time at the end of the second leg, then penalties. The third-place match in June goes straight to penalties. Who can still reach those ties is on our Nations League quarter-finals guide.
Premier League matches never go to penalties, but the domestic cups run alongside the league season; dates and the season tracker are on our Premier League 2026/27 betting guide.
Frequently asked questions
Do penalty shoot-out goals count for correct score or over/under?
No. Law 10.3 of the Laws of the Game says penalties in a shoot-out are taken after the match has ended, so they are not part of the match score. Fleetwood Town 1-1 Arsenal on 27 October 2026, won 5-3 by Fleetwood on penalties, is a 1-1 draw with two goals for every match result, correct score, over/under and both-teams-to-score bet. Only markets that name the shoot-out, or that settle on who goes through, look at the penalties.
How often does a cup tie go to penalties?
It depends on whether the competition plays extra time. Where a level score goes straight to penalties, as in the Carabao Cup before the semi-finals, a shoot-out happens exactly when the match is drawn after 90 minutes: for two evenly matched sides that is roughly one tie in four. Where 30 minutes of extra time come first, about half of those ties are settled in extra time, so a shoot-out falls to roughly one tie in seven or eight. Three of the eight Carabao Cup fourth-round ties in October 2026 went to penalties.
What happens to a bet on the shoot-out winner if there is no shoot-out?
Markets that exist only if a shoot-out takes place, such as the shoot-out winner or the shoot-out correct score, are normally made void when the tie is decided earlier, and the stake is returned. A Yes/No market on whether there will be a shoot-out is different: No is a winning outcome, so it is settled, not voided. Each operator's rules are the binding text, so check how yours treats the market before you bet.
What is the most likely penalty shoot-out score?
If every kick is scored three times in four, which is a neutral working assumption rather than a measured rate, the two most likely final scores are 5-4 and 4-3 at about 19% each, followed by 4-2 at about 17%. About 29% of shoot-outs reach sudden death under that assumption, and about 44% end before the tenth kick because one side can no longer catch up.
Can a player who was sent off take a penalty in the shoot-out?
No. Law 10.3 excludes any player sent off during the match, and if one team ends the match with more players than the other it must reduce to the same number before the kicks start, telling the referee who is left out. Cautions from the match are not carried into the shoot-out.
Sources and method
Read on 30 October 2026. Results are from the clubs' own match reports and highlights. The “how often” and score tables are our own calculation: a Poisson model of goals for the first, and a full enumeration of the Law 10.3 kicking sequence for the second. No operator is named and no price on a specific match appears on this page.
- The IFAB, Laws of the Game 2026/27, Law 10 — Determining the outcome of a match (10.3, penalties) — theifab.com
- Crystal Palace FC, Carabao Cup draw details 2026/27 (no extra time before the semi-finals) — cpfc.co.uk
- Fleetwood Town FC, match report v Arsenal, 27 October 2026 — fleetwoodtownfc.com
- Chelsea FC, highlights: Liverpool 1-1 Chelsea (6-5 pens) — chelseafc.com
- Sky Sports, Manchester City 2-2 Brighton (City win 4-3 on penalties), 28 October 2026 — skysports.com
- Everton FC, Everton beat Newcastle to secure cup quarter-final, 29 October 2026 — evertonfc.com
- The FA, Emirates FA Cup round dates 2026/27 — thefa.com
- The FA, new FA Cup format from 2024/25 (no replays from the first round proper) — thefa.com
- UEFA, Regulations of the UEFA Nations League 2026/27, Article 18 — extra time and penalty shoot-outs — documents.uefa.com
18+. A shoot-out is about as close to a coin toss as football gets, and markets on it settle in minutes. If you bet on one, decide the stake before the kicks start and do not chase a miss with the next kick. Deposit limits, time-outs and support are on our responsible gambling page.