AFCON 2027 Qualifiers: How Teams Qualify, the Co-Host Rule and What Each Group Needs

How qualification works

Forty-eight teams were drawn into 12 groups of four. Each team plays the other three home and away, six matches in all, with three points for a win and one for a draw. CAF's rule for who goes to the finals has two parts:

• Groups without a co-host (A, B, C, E, F, G, I, J, K): the top two qualify. That is 18 teams.
• Groups with a co-host (D, H, L): Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania play every match but are qualified "regardless of their finishing positions", in CAF's words, and the highest-placed other team takes the second ticket. That is three more teams, plus the three hosts.

3 hosts + 3 teams from the host groups + 18 from the other groups = 24, the size of the final tournament. After two matches every team has four games and 12 points left to play for: two this month and two in the March 2027 international window.

The host rule changes what a position is worth. If the co-host finishes first, the runner-up qualifies. If the co-host finishes second, third or fourth, only the group winner qualifies. The co-host's own results still matter to everybody else: every point Kenya take off South Africa, or Tanzania off Nigeria, is a point the chasing teams do not have.

Standings before Matchday 3, and the November fixtures

Points after two matches, as reported by CAF on 2 October and 3 November 2026 (Group B uses CAF's figures of 3 November, after Angola v Malawi had been played). Teams on the same points are listed in CAF's order. Kick-off times are GMT, home team first. Co-host groups are marked: the co-host is shown in italics and only one other team in those groups qualifies.

November is played as double headers: in every group each team meets the same opponent twice, home and away, within a week. In Groups C and K the two leaders meet each other, and in Group D South Africa meet co-host Kenya. Those pairs will have played half of their head-to-head series by 17 November, which matters for the tie-break order below.

Tie-breakers: head-to-head comes first

Article 14 of CAF's Africa Cup of Nations regulations sets the order for two teams level on points:

1. Points obtained in the matches between the teams concerned
2. Goal difference in the matches between the teams concerned
3. Away goals scored in the matches between the teams concerned
4. Goal difference in all group matches
5. Goals scored in all group matches
6. Drawing of lots

When three or more teams are level, CAF first builds a mini-table of the matches between those teams only (points, goal difference, goals scored, away goals). If that leaves two still level, the same criteria are applied again to the two of them, and only then does overall goal difference come in, followed by goals scored, away goals scored in all group matches and a drawing of lots.

This is the opposite of the Premier League habit of reading the goal difference column first, and the same principle as the Nations League tiebreakers. A 5-0 win over the bottom side buys nothing against a rival who beat you home and away.

The co-host groups: one ticket for three teams

Group L: Nigeria, Guinea-Bissau and Madagascar

Guinea-Bissau lead on six points with five goals scored and none conceded; Nigeria have three, Madagascar one. Tanzania are already qualified, so only one of the other three goes to the finals. Nigeria play Tanzania twice (13 and 17 November) while Guinea-Bissau play Madagascar twice. Starting three points behind, Nigeria need to take at least four more points than Guinea-Bissau across November to lead going into March: three more would only draw them level on points, and then the head-to-head between the two would decide.

Group D: South Africa, Guinea and Eritrea

South Africa have six points, Guinea three, Eritrea one, and Kenya one as qualified co-host. South Africa's double header is against Kenya, so Kenya's results decide nothing for Kenya and a great deal for South Africa's rivals: Guinea play Eritrea twice on the same dates.

Group H: Botswana, Tunisia and Libya

Uganda top the group on four points, but their position does not affect their own qualification. Below them, Botswana and Tunisia have two points each and Libya one, with a single place between them. Tunisia play Libya twice; Botswana play Uganda twice. If Uganda finish first, the second-placed team qualifies; if Uganda finish lower, only the group winner does.

Group C: what Ghana can and cannot do in November

Ghana lost both of their opening matches and have no points; Côte d'Ivoire and Gambia have six each. Group C has no co-host, so the top two qualify. Ghana play Somalia twice, while the two leaders play each other twice. Assuming Ghana win both games and reach six points, this is where they would stand going into March:

Our own arithmetic on CAF's standings. The weaker of the two leaders cannot finish November on fewer than six points, so even two Ghana wins leave them, at best, level with one of them and still needing results in March. Any dropped point against Somalia makes it harder.

How "to qualify" bets settle in these groups

• To qualifyis settled on whether the team reaches the finals under CAF's rules, not on its finishing position. In a co-host group a team can finish second and lose a "to qualify" bet, if the co-host is not first. How bookmakers build these books, and why they add up to more than 100%, is covered in our to qualify betting guide.
• Group winner and finishing position markets are settled on the final table, co-host included. A bet on Uganda to win Group H can win even though it changes nothing for Uganda, and a bet on another team to win the group loses if Uganda finish first. Like other outright bets, these run until the last matchday in March 2027.
• Single matchesare settled on the 90 minutes plus stoppage time. A match moved to a different date or neutral venue is handled by each bookmaker's own postponement and venue rules, so read them before betting on a fixture that has been rearranged.

Anyone holding a long-range qualification bet who wants to reduce the risk before March can work out a cover stake with the hedge calculator. The same "how many points do we need" question in club football is answered in our Champions League points to qualify guide.